Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Fem Football Week 6 - Murphys Law

After last weeks little experiment, I decided to go back to my usual science in my picks. Now as it is not really proprietary info, I don't mind sharing a bit of my personal picking logic.

I go to the teams ESPN page. I look at passing yards, rushing yards, previous scores, influential injuries, and a few other minor stats and weigh that against the same of the opponent. Then I take that and weigh it against the spread. While some think its an archaic way to to pick football, it definitely adds some extra oomph to the picks. Sometimes the spread is just outrageous, and you think there is no way the team can win by that much. Ya never really know. Teams have stomped a 3 point spread with a score of 60-0, or not come close to covering a 35 point spread and barely winning by a field goal. Regardless, the spread is part of the action in the betting world, and my little "upick" world. So with those factors all calculated, I pick my teams and hope for the best.

Week 6 had a few hard to call spreads. Michigan (favored +5) v Michigan State. Not only did they NOT cover a 5 point spread, they LOST 34-17! UGH.

LSU 33 v Florida 29 (favored +7.5)

S Carolina 35 v Alabama 21 (favored +8)

shall I go on?

TCU had a 35 point spread to cover over Wyoming, and did so with 45-0 win. Now, while I fully appreciate TCU's perfect record and expected them to win, I did not expect the little Horny Frogs to deliver quite so well. I sadly picked the Cowboys to not allow coverage! ACK. I am going to take TCU over BYU next week. GO FROGS

Out of pure loyalty I ALWAYS pick Tennessee to win. Part of me is afraid that if I don't, I could be the hex that makes them lose. Like not clapping for Tinkerbell, not believing in your team, could kill them. As the VOLS are still adjusting to the new coach (again), and the after math of Lane Kiffin, it looks as if we may have a few more "rebuilding years" to go. I keep clapping and believing, and am hopeful that it will all come together sooner rather than later.

In the end this week was below average. 21/45 But I was reminded of something this week, that I learned a long time ago.... the coin toss applies to more than just who starts the game off with a kick!